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Post by Roland of Gilead on Sept 28, 2008 13:18:01 GMT -5
Well, the first numbers are in, and the public apparently feels Obama is the clear debate winner. Gallup has Obama now with an 8-point lead, and the debate-winner. www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspxMy perception is that as long as the economy remains the public's number one concern, Obama will win. If concerns turn to some international crisis, McCain may still get the edge. Whether that is justified or not, it seems to be true. This leaves open the possibility that Bush could engineer some sort of crisis so as to boost Republican chances. I think this poll is very significant, since Gallup normally leans heavily Republican. Zogby is considered more accurate, so we'll see what their numbers work out to be soon. Beware the "October Surprise."
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Post by Roland of Gilead on Sept 29, 2008 13:54:04 GMT -5
A lot of people are making an issue of the fact that McCain never once looked at Obama during or after the debate. His disdain is really apparent here. One interpretation of the body language is that McCain is unsure of his own points. While he may not necessarily be lying, he seems to lack confidence. Note Obama's strong stance in this pick juxtaposed to McCain's attempt to avoid eye contact.
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Post by Roland of Gilead on Oct 1, 2008 12:24:01 GMT -5
A new poll has Obama way up in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Kerry only carried Pennsylvania in 2004, although he probably won Ohio and had it stolen from him. The huge lead in Florida is quite impressive, which means Naomi might be right about Barack's speech before AIPAC having comforted the Jewish community. If there is no International crisis in the next month, this is pretty much the election. Bush cannot engineer an "October Surprise" to aid McCain because he's lost almost all gravitas, even within his own party. ______________________________________________________
WASHINGTON - A new poll showed Democrat Barack Obama pulling ahead of Republican opponent John McCain in the key swing states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania as their vice presidential running mates were sequestered in preparations for a much-anticipated debate.
Obama's support jumped to 50 percent or above in those states, according to Quinnipiac University surveys taken over the weekend — after he and McCain held their first presidential debate.
With fewer than five weeks remaining in what has been an extended and brutal contest for the White House, the top issue for voters is the staggering U.S. economy which has slammed Americans with home mortgage foreclosures, job losses, record fuel prices and evaporating retirement savings.
Both candidates, who are members of the U.S. Senate, were expected in Washington on Wednesday to vote on an expanded economic rescue package. The stock market plunged dramatically on Monday after the House of Representatives failed to approve a $700 billion plan to prop up the country's financial system. Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was at McCain's Sedona, Arizona, compound to bone up for Thursday's only vice presidential confrontation. Sen. Joe Biden, meanwhile, was preparing at his Delaware home. Biden also planned to return to Washington for the vote.
Obama was returning to the capital after a campaign stop in Wisconsin, McCain was to be in Missouri.
The House was thought preparing to take a fresh run at the rescue plan put forward by the administration of President George W. Bush on Friday, although no vote is yet scheduled.
The three states — where Obama had been trailing or was, at best, tied in previous surveys — represent 68 of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory on Election Day, Nov. 4.
Troublesome for McCain The new Quinnipiac poll was only the latest bump in the campaign trail for McCain, who is trying to retake control of the contest during particularly trying times for Republicans, who were largely blamed for the failure of the House bailout vote. The new survey shows Obama leading McCain in Florida 51 percent to 43 percent, in Ohio 50 percent to 42 percent and in Pennsylvania 54 percent to 39 percent. Since 1960, no president has been elected without winning two of those three states.
Perhaps sensing deepening voter anxiety over the economy, both men worked Tuesday to cool the partisan heat over the crisis by calling for Congress to regroup and act quickly to prevent the feared financial collapse and foster confidence in the banking system.
Both presidential candidates are under pressure to reassure voters that they can prevent an economic meltdown of a kind unseen since Franklin D. Roosevelt was voted into the White House in the depths of the 1930s Great Depression.
In a bold bid to revive Bush's $700 billion financial rescue plan, Senate leaders scheduled a vote for Wednesday night on a version of the bill that adds substantial tax cuts meant to appeal to Republicans when it reaches the House.
Also Wednesday, former President Bill Clinton, setting aside whatever bitter feelings he holds from wife Hillary Rodham Clinton's loss in the Democratic primary campaign, was heading to Florida to hold his first rallies on Obama's behalf. Clinton was dispatched to boost a voter registration drive in the key battleground state, where most polling showed the candidates nearly even.
Both McCain and Obama on Tuesday urged the Congress to approve increasing the guarantee on bank accounts to $250,000 from a limit of $100,000.
An increase in the limits on accounts insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. later was incorporated into the Senate version of the financial rescue plan.
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Post by davidlee on Oct 3, 2008 8:32:45 GMT -5
Let's see, a 5 point lead with a 4 point +/- error factor. Yeah that's a pretty clear lead there Rick! Hehe Anyway, we will probably see those numbers see saw back and forth from now to election day. And you know as well as I do that polls are only as good as the people taking them. Hell, I could call 100 of my Friends and McCain would be leading 100% to 0%!
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Post by Roland of Gilead on Oct 3, 2008 11:55:01 GMT -5
Palin did better than expected last night, for sure, so you're right. The numbers will tighten up again. But if you go state by state, even with small leads, it's beginning to look like a rout on the electoral map. Florida has abolished the voting machines, yes? Sadly, Nevada has not. Most observers are saying Biden would have won last night's debate on points, but I think the public will be far more endeared to Palin. If it was a baseball game, it would be alike a Biden win, 7 to 6. At least they genuinely seemed to like each other and were enjoying themeselves. Look at this picture, compared to the one above:
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